Modeling the Emergence of Riots: A Geosimulation Approach

As you might of guessed the paper is about riots but that is not all. In the paper we have a highly detailed cognitive model implemented through the PECS (Physical conditions, Emotional state, Cognitive capabilities, and Social status) framework based around identity theory. The purpose of the model (and paper) is to explore how the unique socioeconomic variables underlying Kibera, a slum in Nairobi, coupled with local interactions of its residents, and the spread of a rumor, may trigger a riot such as those seen in 2007. 
In order to explore this question from the “bottom up” we have developed a novel agent-based model that integrates social network analysis (SNA) and geographic information systems (GIS) for this purpose. In the paper we argue that this integration facilitates the modeling of dynamic social networks created through the agents’ daily interactions. The GIS is used to develop a realistic environment for agents to move and interact that includes a road network and points of interest which impact their daily lives.
Below is the abstract and a summary of its highlights in order to give you a sense of what our research contribution is. In addition to this we also provide some images either from the paper itself or the from Overview, Design Concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol. Finally at the bottom of this post you can see one of the simulation runs, details of where the model can be downloaded along with the full citation.

Paper Abstract:

Immediately after the 2007 Kenyan election results were announced, the country erupted in protest. Riots were particularly severe in Kibera, an informal settlement located within the nations capital, Nairobi. Through the lens of geosimulation, an agent-based model is integrated with social network analysis and geographic information systems to explore how the environment and local interactions underlying Kibera, combined with an external trigger, such as a rumor, led to the emergence of riots. We ground our model on empirical data of Kibera’s geospatial landscape, heterogeneous population, and daily activities of its residents. In order to effectively construct a model of riots, however, we must have an understanding of human behavior, especially that related to an individual’s need for identity and the role rumors play on a person’s decision to riot. This provided the foundation to develop the agents’ cognitive model, which created a feedback system between the agents’ activities in physical space and interactions in social space. Results showed that youth are more susceptible to rioting. Systematically increasing education and employment opportunities, however, did not have simple linear effects on rioting, or even on quality of life with respect to income and activities. The situation is more complex. By linking agent-based modeling, social network analysis, and geographic information systems we were able to develop a cognitive framework for the agents, better represent human behavior by modeling the interactions that occur over both physical and social space, and capture the nonlinear, reinforcing nature of the emergence and dissolution of riots.

Keywords: agent-based modeling; geographic information systems; social network analysis; riots; social influence; rumor propagation.

Paper Highlights:

  • An agent-based model integrates geographic information systems and social network analysis to model the emergence of riots. 
  • The physical environment and agent attributes are developed using empirical data, including GIS and socioeconomic data. 
  • The agent’s cognitive framework allowed for modeling their activities in physical space and interactions in social space. 
  • Through the integration of the three techniques, we were able to capture the complex, nonlinear nature of riots. 
  • Results show that youth are most vulnerable, and, increasing education and employment has nonlinear affects on rioting.

The high-level UML diagram of the model
A high-level representation of the model’s agent behavior incorporated into the PECS framework

An example of the evolution of social networks of ten Residents across the first two days of a simulation run.

The movie below shows the agent-based model which explores ethnic clashes in the Kenyan slum. The environment is made up of households, businesses, and service facilities (such data comes from OpenStreetMap). Agents within the model use a transportation network to move across the environment. As agents go about their daily activities, they interact with other agents – building out an evolving social network. Agents seek to meet their identity standard. Failure to reach their identity standard increases the agents frustration which can lead to an aggressive response (i.e. moving from blue to red color) such as rioting.

As with many of our models, we provide the data, model code and detailed model description in the form of the ODD protocol for others to use, learn more or to extend. Click here for more information.

Full Reference:

Pires, B. and Crooks, A.T. (2017), Modeling the Emergence of Riots: A Geosimulation Approach, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 61: 66-80. (pdf)

As normal, any thoughts or comments are most appreciated.
 

Continue reading »

Modeling the Emergence of Riots: A Geosimulation Approach

As you might of guessed the paper is about riots but that is not all. In the paper we have a highly detailed cognitive model implemented through the PECS (Physical conditions, Emotional state, Cognitive capabilities, and Social status) framework based around identity theory. The purpose of the model (and paper) is to explore how the unique socioeconomic variables underlying Kibera, a slum in Nairobi, coupled with local interactions of its residents, and the spread of a rumor, may trigger a riot such as those seen in 2007. 
In order to explore this question from the “bottom up” we have developed a novel agent-based model that integrates social network analysis (SNA) and geographic information systems (GIS) for this purpose. In the paper we argue that this integration facilitates the modeling of dynamic social networks created through the agents’ daily interactions. The GIS is used to develop a realistic environment for agents to move and interact that includes a road network and points of interest which impact their daily lives.
Below is the abstract and a summary of its highlights in order to give you a sense of what our research contribution is. In addition to this we also provide some images either from the paper itself or the from Overview, Design Concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol. Finally at the bottom of this post you can see one of the simulation runs, details of where the model can be downloaded along with the full citation.

Paper Abstract:

Immediately after the 2007 Kenyan election results were announced, the country erupted in protest. Riots were particularly severe in Kibera, an informal settlement located within the nations capital, Nairobi. Through the lens of geosimulation, an agent-based model is integrated with social network analysis and geographic information systems to explore how the environment and local interactions underlying Kibera, combined with an external trigger, such as a rumor, led to the emergence of riots. We ground our model on empirical data of Kibera’s geospatial landscape, heterogeneous population, and daily activities of its residents. In order to effectively construct a model of riots, however, we must have an understanding of human behavior, especially that related to an individual’s need for identity and the role rumors play on a person’s decision to riot. This provided the foundation to develop the agents’ cognitive model, which created a feedback system between the agents’ activities in physical space and interactions in social space. Results showed that youth are more susceptible to rioting. Systematically increasing education and employment opportunities, however, did not have simple linear effects on rioting, or even on quality of life with respect to income and activities. The situation is more complex. By linking agent-based modeling, social network analysis, and geographic information systems we were able to develop a cognitive framework for the agents, better represent human behavior by modeling the interactions that occur over both physical and social space, and capture the nonlinear, reinforcing nature of the emergence and dissolution of riots.

Keywords: agent-based modeling; geographic information systems; social network analysis; riots; social influence; rumor propagation.

Paper Highlights:

  • An agent-based model integrates geographic information systems and social network analysis to model the emergence of riots. 
  • The physical environment and agent attributes are developed using empirical data, including GIS and socioeconomic data. 
  • The agent’s cognitive framework allowed for modeling their activities in physical space and interactions in social space. 
  • Through the integration of the three techniques, we were able to capture the complex, nonlinear nature of riots. 
  • Results show that youth are most vulnerable, and, increasing education and employment has nonlinear affects on rioting.

The high-level UML diagram of the model
A high-level representation of the model’s agent behavior incorporated into the PECS framework

An example of the evolution of social networks of ten Residents across the first two days of a simulation run.

The movie below shows the agent-based model which explores ethnic clashes in the Kenyan slum. The environment is made up of households, businesses, and service facilities (such data comes from OpenStreetMap). Agents within the model use a transportation network to move across the environment. As agents go about their daily activities, they interact with other agents – building out an evolving social network. Agents seek to meet their identity standard. Failure to reach their identity standard increases the agents frustration which can lead to an aggressive response (i.e. moving from blue to red color) such as rioting.

As with many of our models, we provide the data, model code and detailed model description in the form of the ODD protocol for others to use, learn more or to extend. Click here for more information.

Full Reference:

Pires, B. and Crooks, A.T. (2017), Modeling the Emergence of Riots: A Geosimulation Approach, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 61: 66-80. (pdf)

As normal, any thoughts or comments are most appreciated.
 

Continue reading »

CSS Phds and Masters 2016

One of the great rewards with working within a university is the interaction with students and seeing them advance through their studies and carryout innovative research projects.

This last academic year the Computational Social Science Program here at Mason had a bumper crop of graduates both at the PhD and masters level.

 In the picture are newly hooded Drs Palmer, Rouly and Magallanes.
Along with the not so new Drs Axtell, Crooks and Cioffi.

Our recent PhD graduates included:

       In the picture are newly hooded Drs Scott, Russo, Masad, Dover and Shin. Along with the not so new Drs Cioffi, Crooks,  Kennedy and Mrs. Underwood.

      Along with our PhD graduates we also had a number of Masters students graduate in the MAIS with a Concentration in Computational Social Science Program. Well done to Rui Zhang, Justin Brandenburg, Matthew Oldham, Stefan McCabe, Craig Brown and Stefani Fournier.

      Continue reading »

      CSS Phds and Masters 2016

      One of the great rewards with working within a university is the interaction with students and seeing them advance through their studies and carryout innovative research projects.

      This last academic year the Computational Social Science Program here at Mason had a bumper crop of graduates both at the PhD and masters level.

       In the picture are newly hooded Drs Palmer, Rouly and Magallanes.
      Along with the not so new Drs Axtell, Crooks and Cioffi.

      Our recent PhD graduates included:

           In the picture are newly hooded Drs Scott, Russo, Masad, Dover and Shin. Along with the not so new Drs Cioffi, Crooks,  Kennedy and Mrs. Underwood.

          Along with our PhD graduates we also had a number of Masters students graduate in the MAIS with a Concentration in Computational Social Science Program. Well done to Rui Zhang, Justin Brandenburg, Matthew Oldham, Stefan McCabe, Craig Brown and Stefani Fournier.

          Continue reading »

          New Paper: ABM Applied to the Spread of Cholera

          Cholera transmission through the interaction
          of host and the environment
          We are pleased to announce we have just had a paper published in Environmental Modelling and Software entitled “An Agent-based Modeling Approach Applied to the Spread of Cholera
          Research highlights include:
          • An agent-based model was developed to explore the spread of cholera.
          • The progress of cholera transmission is represented through a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. 
          • The model integrates geographical data with agents’ daily activities within a refugee camp.
          • Results show cholera infections are impacted by agents’ movement and source of contamination. 
          • The model has the potential for aiding humanitarian response with respect to disease outbreaks.
          Cholera dynamics when rainfall is introduced.

          Spatial spread of cholera over the course of a year.
          Study area
          If the research highlights have not turned you off, the abstract to the paper is below:
          “Cholera is an intestinal disease and is characterized by diarrhea and severe dehydration. While cholera has mainly been eliminated in regions that can provide clean water, adequate hygiene and proper sanitation; it remains a constant threat in many parts of Africa and Asia. Within this paper, we develop an agent-based model that explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya. Poor sanitation and housing conditions contribute to frequent incidents of cholera outbreaks within this camp. We model the spread of cholera by explicitly representing the interaction between humans and their environment, and the spread of the epidemic using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. Results from the model show that the spread of cholera grows radially from contaminated water sources and seasonal rains can cause the emergence of cholera outbreaks. This modeling effort highlights the potential of agent-based modeling to explore the spread of cholera in a humanitarian context.”
          Finally to aide replication, experimentation or just explore how you can link raster and vector data in GeoMason, we have a dedicated website where you can download executables of the model along with the source code and associated data. Moreover we have provide a really detailed Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) Protocol document of the model.

          Full Reference:

          Crooks, A.T. and Hailegiorgis, A.B. (2014), An Agent-based Modeling Approach Applied to the Spread of Cholera, Environmental Modelling and Software, 62: 164-177
          DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.027 (pdf)

          Continue reading »

          New Paper: ABM Applied to the Spread of Cholera

          Cholera transmission through the interaction
          of host and the environment
          We are pleased to announce we have just had a paper published in Environmental Modelling and Software entitled “An Agent-based Modeling Approach Applied to the Spread of Cholera
          Research highlights include:
          • An agent-based model was developed to explore the spread of cholera.
          • The progress of cholera transmission is represented through a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. 
          • The model integrates geographical data with agents’ daily activities within a refugee camp.
          • Results show cholera infections are impacted by agents’ movement and source of contamination. 
          • The model has the potential for aiding humanitarian response with respect to disease outbreaks.
          Cholera dynamics when rainfall is introduced.

          Spatial spread of cholera over the course of a year.
          Study area
          If the research highlights have not turned you off, the abstract to the paper is below:
          “Cholera is an intestinal disease and is characterized by diarrhea and severe dehydration. While cholera has mainly been eliminated in regions that can provide clean water, adequate hygiene and proper sanitation; it remains a constant threat in many parts of Africa and Asia. Within this paper, we develop an agent-based model that explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya. Poor sanitation and housing conditions contribute to frequent incidents of cholera outbreaks within this camp. We model the spread of cholera by explicitly representing the interaction between humans and their environment, and the spread of the epidemic using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. Results from the model show that the spread of cholera grows radially from contaminated water sources and seasonal rains can cause the emergence of cholera outbreaks. This modeling effort highlights the potential of agent-based modeling to explore the spread of cholera in a humanitarian context.”
          Finally to aide replication, experimentation or just explore how you can link raster and vector data in GeoMason, we have a dedicated website where you can download executables of the model along with the source code and associated data. Moreover we have provide a really detailed Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) Protocol document of the model.

          Full Reference:

          Crooks, A.T. and Hailegiorgis, A.B. (2014), An Agent-based Modeling Approach Applied to the Spread of Cholera, Environmental Modelling and Software, 62: 164-177
          DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.027 (pdf)

          Continue reading »

          Modeling the outbreak, spread, and containment of tuberculosis

          It seems my interest into disease models is growing. While the development of the cholera model is still underway, over the summer I have had been working with a very talented high school student looking at the outbreak, spread and containment of tuberculosis (TB). Why might you ask? TB is a global problem with 1.8 billion people having a TB Infection, 8.8 million people infected with the TB disease, and around 1.5 million annual deaths. It is the second most common form of death from an infectious disease with the majority of cases in developing countries.

          So we have been developing a model that explores how TB might manifest itself, spread within an urban setting and the potential to contain the disease. We have chosen as our test case the Kibera slum within Nairobi, Kenya. Agents in this model represent the residents of the Kibera slum. They are mobile and goal-orientated, seeking to fulfill one goal before moving on to the next. Goals are determined based on the agent’s characteristics (age, sex, etc.) as well as their needs (water, food, health etc.). The exact location they choose to go to is also affected by the distance. When agents interact with one another, they can be infected with TB. Infection is determined upon the amount of bacilli absorbed by agents and their immune response. The transition from infection to disease for HIV positive patients is also dependent on the patient’s CD4 cell count.  What you see below is a poster we presented at Krasnow Institute Retreat.

          To give a sense of the dynamics of the model, the movie below shows agents moving around the slum and how their health status changes as time progresses.

          Continue reading »

          Modeling the outbreak, spread, and containment of tuberculosis

          It seems my interest into disease models is growing. While the development of the cholera model is still underway, over the summer I have had been working with a very talented high school student looking at the outbreak, spread and containment of tuberculosis (TB). Why might you ask? TB is a global problem with 1.8 billion people having a TB Infection, 8.8 million people infected with the TB disease, and around 1.5 million annual deaths. It is the second most common form of death from an infectious disease with the majority of cases in developing countries.

          So we have been developing a model that explores how TB might manifest itself, spread within an urban setting and the potential to contain the disease. We have chosen as our test case the Kibera slum within Nairobi, Kenya. Agents in this model represent the residents of the Kibera slum. They are mobile and goal-orientated, seeking to fulfill one goal before moving on to the next. Goals are determined based on the agent’s characteristics (age, sex, etc.) as well as their needs (water, food, health etc.). The exact location they choose to go to is also affected by the distance. When agents interact with one another, they can be infected with TB. Infection is determined upon the amount of bacilli absorbed by agents and their immune response. The transition from infection to disease for HIV positive patients is also dependent on the patient’s CD4 cell count.  What you see below is a poster we presented at Krasnow Institute Retreat.

          To give a sense of the dynamics of the model, the movie below shows agents moving around the slum and how their health status changes as time progresses.

          Continue reading »

          New Publication: GIS and Agent-Based models for Humanitarian Assistance

          Inputs to the model
           
          As the readers of the blog know, we have an interest in GIS, agent-based modeling and crowdsourcing. Now we have a paper that combines all these three elements. Its entitled “GIS and Agent-Based models for Humanitarian Assistance” and is published in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 
           
          The model itself was written in MASON and uses extensively GeoMASON. Data comes from several different sources (both raster and vector) including OpenStreetMap and LandScan. Below you can read an abstract of the paper and see a movie of one of the scenarios.

          “Natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis occur all over the world, altering the physical landscape and often severely disrupting people’s daily lives. Recently researchers’ attention has focused on using crowds of volunteers to help map the damaged infrastructure and devastation caused by natural disasters, such as those in Haiti and Pakistan. This data is extremely useful, as it is allows us to assess damage and thus aid the distribution of relief, but it tells us little about how the people in such areas will react to the devastation. This paper demonstrates a prototype spatially explicit agent-based model, created using crowdsourced geographic information and other sources of publicly available data, which can be used to study the aftermath of a catastrophic event. The specific case modelled here is the Haiti earthquake of January 2010. Crowdsourced data is used to build the initial populations of people affected by the event, to construct their environment, and to set their needs based on the damage to buildings. We explore how people react to the distribution of aid, as well as how rumours relating to aid availability propagate through the population. Such a model could potentially provide a link between socio-cultural information about the people affected and the relevant humanitarian relief organizations.”

          Full Reference: 

          Crooks, A.T. and Wise, S. (2013), GIS and Agent-Based models for Humanitarian Assistance, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 41: 100-111.

          Continue reading »

          New Publication: GIS and Agent-Based models for Humanitarian Assistance

          Inputs to the model
           
          As the readers of the blog know, we have an interest in GIS, agent-based modeling and crowdsourcing. Now we have a paper that combines all these three elements. Its entitled “GIS and Agent-Based models for Humanitarian Assistance” and is published in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 
           
          The model itself was written in MASON and uses extensively GeoMASON. Data comes from several different sources (both raster and vector) including OpenStreetMap and LandScan. Below you can read an abstract of the paper and see a movie of one of the scenarios.

          “Natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis occur all over the world, altering the physical landscape and often severely disrupting people’s daily lives. Recently researchers’ attention has focused on using crowds of volunteers to help map the damaged infrastructure and devastation caused by natural disasters, such as those in Haiti and Pakistan. This data is extremely useful, as it is allows us to assess damage and thus aid the distribution of relief, but it tells us little about how the people in such areas will react to the devastation. This paper demonstrates a prototype spatially explicit agent-based model, created using crowdsourced geographic information and other sources of publicly available data, which can be used to study the aftermath of a catastrophic event. The specific case modelled here is the Haiti earthquake of January 2010. Crowdsourced data is used to build the initial populations of people affected by the event, to construct their environment, and to set their needs based on the damage to buildings. We explore how people react to the distribution of aid, as well as how rumours relating to aid availability propagate through the population. Such a model could potentially provide a link between socio-cultural information about the people affected and the relevant humanitarian relief organizations.”

          Full Reference: 

          Crooks, A.T. and Wise, S. (2013), GIS and Agent-Based models for Humanitarian Assistance, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 41: 100-111.

          Continue reading »

          Distributed MASON

          Last week, the Center for Social Complexity at GMU, hosted Prof. Vittorio Scarano and Carmine Spagnuolo from the ISISLab of the Università degli Studi di Salerno who have been working on a distributed version of MASON (DMason). The idea is that one can create an agent-based model in MASON and then use the framework to easily distribute it over many machines. The movie below shows an example of what can be done. More information can be found here.

          However, if you don’t use MASON, you might also be interested in Repast for High Performance Computing

          Continue reading »

          Distributed MASON

          Last week, the Center for Social Complexity at GMU, hosted Prof. Vittorio Scarano and Carmine Spagnuolo from the ISISLab of the Università degli Studi di Salerno who have been working on a distributed version of MASON (DMason). The idea is that one can create an agent-based model in MASON and then use the framework to easily distribute it over many machines. The movie below shows an example of what can be done. More information can be found here.

          However, if you don’t use MASON, you might also be interested in Repast for High Performance Computing

          Continue reading »
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