Temporal OAC

As part of an ESRC Secondary Data Analysis Initiative grant Michail Pavlis, Paul Longley and I have been working on developing methods by which temporal patterns of geodemographic change can be modelled.

Much of this work has been focused on census based classifications, such as the 2001 Output Area Classification (OAC), and the 2011 OAC released today. We have been particularly interested in examining methods by which secondary data might be used to create measures enabling the screening of small areas over time as uncertainty builds as a result of residential structure change. The writeup of this work is currently out for review, however, we have placed the census based classification created for the years 2001 – 2011 on the new public.cdrc.ac.uk website, along with a change measure.

Some findings

• 8 Clusters were found to be of greatest utility for the description of OA change between 2001 and 2011 and included
  • Cluster 1- “Suburban Diversity”
  • Cluster 2- “Ethnicity Central”
  • Cluster 3- “Intermediate Areas”
  • Cluster 4- “Students and Aspiring Professionals”
  • Cluster 5- “County Living and Retirement”
  • Cluster 6- “Blue-collar Suburbanites”
  • Cluster 7- “Professional Prosperity”
  • Cluster 8 – “Hard-up Households”

A map of the clusters in 2001 and 2011 for Leeds are as follows:

• The changing cluster assignment between 2001 and 2011 reflected
  • Developing “Suburban Diversity”
  • Gentrification of central areas, leading to growing “Students and Aspiring Professionals”
  • Regional variations
    • “Ethnicity Central” more stable between 2001 and 2011 in the South East and London, than in the North West and North East, perhaps reflecting differing structural changes in central areas (e.g. gentrification)
    • “Hard-up Households” are more stable in the North West and North East than the South East or London; South East, and acutely so in London, flows were predominantly towards “Suburban Diversity”